 ### Quantitative Analysis CPA 4 zipped file (30 items)  By
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# Quantitative Analysis Overview

GENERAL OBJECTIVE

To develop the candidate's knowledge and competencies in quantitative analysis for use in business operations and decision making

12.0 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
A candidate who passes this paper should be able to:Apply correlation and regression analysis in managementApply basic probability theory in decision makingCompute expected value and variances relevant to decision makingApply decision theory under condition of risk and uncertaintyApply network analysis in project planning and management
12.1 CONTENT
13.1 Mathematical techniques

- Equations, functions and graphs
- Application problems on linear equations and simultaneous equations using; matrix method, quadratic equations and graphs
- Matrix algebra: matrix operations, determinants and inverses
- Application problems in cost, revenue and profit
- Differentiation and intergration; minimization and maximization
12.2 Probability

12.2.1 Defininitions

- Events
- Sample space
- Laws of probability
- Conditional probability
- Probability trees
- Bayes theorem

12.2.2 Sets
- Union
- Intersection
- Enumeration
- Differences and compliments

12.2.3 Probability distributions
- Expected value, variance and coefficient of variation
- Discrete probability distributions-uniform, normal and Poisson
- Continuous probability distributions-uniform, normal and exponential
- Application of probability to business problems
- Elementary Markov analysis
12.3 Correlation and regression analysis

- Scatter diagrams
- Correlation analysis
- Measures of correlation-moment and rank correlation coefficients
- Simple and multiple linear regression models
- Coefficient of determination
- Computer output of linear regression analysis
- T-ratios and confidence interval for the coefficients
12.4 Time Series

- Definition of time series
- Application of time series
- Components of time series
- Models- additive and multiactive models
- Methods of fitting trend: free hand, semi-averages, moving averages, least squares methods
- Measurement of seasonal variation using additive and multiplicative models
- Forecasting time series value using moving averages, ordinary least squares method and exponential smoothing
- Comparison and application of forecasts for different techniques
12.5 Mathematical Programming

- Definition of decision variables, objective function and constraints
- Graphical solutions
- Simplex method
- Sensitivity analysis and economic meaning of shadow prices in business situations
- Interpretation of computer assisted solutions
- Integer programming
- Transportation and assignment problems
12.6 Decision Theory

- Decision process
- Decision making environment-deterministic situation (certainy), analytical hierarchinal approach (AHA), risk and uncertainty, stochastic situations (risk), situations of uncertainty
- Decision making under uncertainty-maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz decision rule, Laplace decision rule
- Decision making under risk-expected monetary value, expected opportunity loss, minimising risk using coefficient of variation, expected value of perfect information
- Decision trees-sequential decision, expected value of sample information
- Limitations of expected monetary value criteria
- Game theory-non Zero sum, two persons Zero sum games, dominance, value of the game, saddle point, mixed strategies
- Limitations of game theory
12.7 Network planning and analysis

- Basic concepts- network, activity, event
- Activity sequencing and network diagram
- Critical path analysis (CPA)
- Earliest start time, earliest finish time, latest finish time, and latest start time
- Float and its importance
- Crashing of activity/project completion time
- Project evaluation and review technique (PERT)
- Resource scheduling (levelling) and Gant charts
- Limitations and advantages of CPA and PERT
- Similarities and dissimilarities
12.8 Inventory control decisions

- Cost of holding stock
- Stock replenishment models
- Quantity discounts
- Timing of replenishment
- Shortage costs models
- Stochastic inventory models
- ABC analysis
12.9 Queuing

- The role of Poisson and exponential distributions
- Queuing systems, elementary single server queuing systems
- Transition diagram
- Determining the steady state probabilities
- Finite capacity queuing systems
- Multiple server queues
12.10 Simulation

- Models contractions
- Assessing model suitability
- Monte Carlo simulation
- System simulation
- Random selection
- Variables in a simulation model
- Construction of simulation model
- Simple inventory simulation
- Simple queuing simulation, single server, single channel “first come first served” (FCFS) model
13.11 Operations/production management

- Design of operations objectives
- Layout design
- Product design
- Operations network design and supply chain/value chain management
- Choice of location of operations
- Types of production
- Production/operations technology design
- Production/operations scheduling and sequencing
- Inventory management and control
- Performance measurement-benchmaking, balanced scorecard and financial measures
- Operational/improvement-quality circles, totals quality management, business process re-engineering and ISO certification
- Failure prevention and recovery
13.12 Strategic management

- Overview of strategic management
- Situational analysis
- Strategic direction
- Strategic formulation
- Types of strategy
- Strategy implementation
- Strategic control
- Balanced score card

13.13 Current issues in management

- Culture in the workplace
- Ethics and social responsibility
- Information technology and management
- Managing change and innovation
- Corporate governance
- Globalization
13.14 Emerging trends in management